With the frenetic pace of competing for more than a thousand Republican delegates up for grabs on February 5th, it isn't perhaps all that surprising that no presidential candidate has visited Montana in person since the Montana GOP's leadership decided to go with the limited caucus on that date that will award our state's 25 delegates.
There are simply much bigger fish to fry. And since it is not a primary or a caucus that has large participation (there will probably be fewer than 2000 Republicans eligible to vote in the caucus,) it is primarily an exercise in a campaign's organizational ability -- which means that the media earned by a candidate visit would have little impact on the outcome.
But that doesn't mean that the caucus hasn't drawn some attention to Montana. The Romney campaign has spent the most money and time in the state, including hiring a campaign coordinator, and including having one of Romney's sons (Josh) come to the Yellowstone County Republican Women's Octoberfest event, and having Romney's brother come from Michigan to do fundraisers (and precinct commmittee member recruitment events) in Bozeman and Billings.
And now, at the Montana Republian Party's "Winter Kickoff" held in Billings, we will have several family members of GOP candidates appear.
In addition to Josh Romney being back for a curtain call, Billings will see Mike Huckabee's wife, Janet Huckabee. Mrs. Huckabee is an interesting lady, who has a soft southern accent, but who has a reputation for being a rather steely defender of her husband against what she feels are unfair attacks. And beware:
Janet and Mike, were the first Governor and First Lady in American history to both receive their concealed weapons carry permits. While First Lady of Arkansas, Janet would practice her shooting at the Arkansas State Police Firing Range.
When people ask her if she is any good, she says she met the shooting qualification requirements needed to become a state trooper in Arkansas." Janet and Mike, were the first Governor and First Lady in American history to both receive their concealed weapons carry permits.
While First Lady of Arkansas, Janet would practice her shooting at the Arkansas State Police Firing Range. When people ask her if she is any good, she says she met the shooting qualification requirements needed to become a state trooper in Arkansas.
And coming to Billings to speak on behalf of Ron Paul is his son (also a physician,) Dr. Rand Paul. If anyone doubts Paul's adherence to libertarian philosophy, it would seem that naming his son after Ayn Rand should provide a little evidence in favor of the proposition. If candidates finish in the order of the effort put into the state, Ron Paul will likely finish a reasonably strong second to Mitt Romney.
Anyway, that's the run-down. It will certainly garner some press for the GOP and draw some attention to the caucus.
While rumors of brokered conventions always fascinate political junkies, they basically never happen anymore, since the days of states sending delegates committed to a "favorite son" who then can be a power-broker at the convention are over. With primaries and caucuses binding delegates, there are too few "at large" delegates to make a difference in the typical two-man horse race that most campaigns typically boil down to.
This year's situation is unusual, with no clear candidate yet emerging. Montana Headlines still maintains, as we have since long before the Iowa caucuses, that John McCain is the logical candidate that brings a combination of an 80-85% lifetime ACU rating, fire in the belly, cross-over appeal with independents and Democrats (i.e. electability,) etc. In other words, if anyone is going to emerge to begin sweeping the field, it will be McCain.
But if nothing decisive happens in Florida, we could see Super Tuesday splitting delegates among the 4 remaining major candidates, making it nearly impossible for one candidate to build momentum and reach critical mass with delegates.
If that situation were to emerge, then the great irony of the February Montana caucus would be that this would have been the one year when the impossible happens -- a nomination fight where a primary in June actually did matters.
Montana would have drawn candidates to the usually meaningless June primaries in Montana and South Dakota. We will know at the time -- if GOP presidential candidates are holding town-meetings in places like Watertown, SD in June, and buying up television ad time in Sioux Falls and Rapid City... well then we'll know that we rolled the dice and it came up snake-eyes. That's politics.
Not that there isn't possible redemption in that scenario -- but that is worth another post.
But more than likely, some Republican will be deep into his general election campaign in June, and South Dakota voters will have to find excitement in deciding which Republican is going to challenge Tim Johnson for the U.S. Senate.
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