There is a path to redemption for the Montana GOP

As we mentioned in our last post, the worst-case scenario for the Montana GOP would be if we are headed for a brokered convention. The sight of having South Dakota next door to us with a contested Presidential primary in June -- inundated with attention from GOP presidential candidates lusting after their delegates -- would be a sign that the February 5th Montana caucus was a gamble that didn't pay off.

Having a couple hundred thousand Republican voters in Montana realizing that this year, their votes would actually for once have meant something -- but that the delegates were long ago allocated in February by a couple thousand active party members... Well, we can just imagine how that will go over with Joe Montana.

There is, however, redemption for us, and if handled well, it could play out very well. The best of both worlds, almost.

Here's what the Montana GOP should do if after February 5th it appears possible that no one candidate will have enough delegates to win on the first ballot at the Republican National Convention:

First, Montana Republican leaders need to make sure that all of the remaining viable candidates are actually on the ballot in the June primary -- which will still take place as scheduled. As far as we know, only the Romney and Paul campaigns have made efforts to get their men on the primary ballot. Whoever else is left in the game needs also to also be on the ballot, even if the Montana GOP leadership has to go out and collect the signatures personally.

This will, of course, mean getting a real campaign chair for John McCain. It is a travesty that Lt. Gov. John Bohlinger stepped into the McCain chairmanship -- not only does it ensure that John McCain will take the drubbing of the season in the Montana caucuses, but it discourages party regulars who might otherwise be drawn to McCain from getting involved in his campaign.

Why on earth did Bohlinger say in late December that he would be the McCain chairman, knowing that in a couple of weeks he was going to get married and then leave the country on his honeymoon for nearly all of the pre-caucus period? Based on those facts alone, he most certainly didn't sign up with the McCain campaign so he could help McCain.

GOP party leaders will need to bypass Bohlinger and convey to the McCain campaign the urgent necessity to create a position above Bohlinger in the organization for Montana. We still want Bohlinger aboard, definitely -- he just can't be the top man.

And they'll need to get McCain on the ballot. Same for Giuliani and Huckabee, if they are in the running. Huckabee has some organization in Montana (although we are unaware of any efforts to get Huckabee on the Presidential primary ballot in June) -- Giuliani doesn't have any organization in Montana, but we'll still need to make sure he gets on the ballot if he is in the race.

Then, the Montana GOP needs to explore whether it will be possible at this date to amend their rules to require its delegates to vote for the winner of the primary on the second and subsequent ballots unless released.

At the very least, a strong party chairman like Erik Iverson can make it clear to the Montana delegates (and to the national campaigns) that this is how the Montana delegation will vote on second and subsequent ballots. The appeal is simple -- if you don't vote the way the primary election goes, then you will be slapping the Montana voting public in the face on behalf of the Republican Party. The delegates will get the message and vote in their party's best interest.

Since by definition a brokered convention will have multiple ballots, this would make the Montana primary suddenly worth fighting to win. New ball game. And we would get a lot of attention in that scenario, since the nomination at a brokered convention will by definition not be decided on the first ballot (which goes to the caucus winner) but on a subsequent ballot (which would go to the primary winner.)

We know from experience that Chairman Iverson occasionally steals ideas from MH (well, actually, we imagine that what happens is that he just comes up with the same ideas independently because they are good ones -- but it's fun to pretend otherwise.)

The Montana GOP is working hard to do the most good for the party and for Montana in influencing the Presidential nomination. To do the best thing possible given the normal situation, that is. The caucus, again, was a good idea to try to accomplish that. It needs to start thinking, however, about how to handle things if they don't go as per usual. And this year, the unexpected seems to have become what is normal in the GOP nomination contest.

Would-be "first family" members hit Billings in run-up to Presidential Caucus

With the frenetic pace of competing for more than a thousand Republican delegates up for grabs on February 5th, it isn't perhaps all that surprising that no presidential candidate has visited Montana in person since the Montana GOP's leadership decided to go with the limited caucus on that date that will award our state's 25 delegates.

There are simply much bigger fish to fry. And since it is not a primary or a caucus that has large participation (there will probably be fewer than 2000 Republicans eligible to vote in the caucus,) it is primarily an exercise in a campaign's organizational ability -- which means that the media earned by a candidate visit would have little impact on the outcome.

But that doesn't mean that the caucus hasn't drawn some attention to Montana. The Romney campaign has spent the most money and time in the state, including hiring a campaign coordinator, and including having one of Romney's sons (Josh) come to the Yellowstone County Republican Women's Octoberfest event, and having Romney's brother come from Michigan to do fundraisers (and precinct commmittee member recruitment events) in Bozeman and Billings.

And now, at the Montana Republian Party's "Winter Kickoff" held in Billings, we will have several family members of GOP candidates appear.

In addition to Josh Romney being back for a curtain call, Billings will see Mike Huckabee's wife, Janet Huckabee. Mrs. Huckabee is an interesting lady, who has a soft southern accent, but who has a reputation for being a rather steely defender of her husband against what she feels are unfair attacks. And beware:

Janet and Mike, were the first Governor and First Lady in American history to both receive their concealed weapons carry permits. While First Lady of Arkansas, Janet would practice her shooting at the Arkansas State Police Firing Range.

When people ask her if she is any good, she says she met the shooting qualification requirements needed to become a state trooper in Arkansas." Janet and Mike, were the first Governor and First Lady in American history to both receive their concealed weapons carry permits.

While First Lady of Arkansas, Janet would practice her shooting at the Arkansas State Police Firing Range. When people ask her if she is any good, she says she met the shooting qualification requirements needed to become a state trooper in Arkansas.

And coming to Billings to speak on behalf of Ron Paul is his son (also a physician,) Dr. Rand Paul. If anyone doubts Paul's adherence to libertarian philosophy, it would seem that naming his son after Ayn Rand should provide a little evidence in favor of the proposition. If candidates finish in the order of the effort put into the state, Ron Paul will likely finish a reasonably strong second to Mitt Romney.

Anyway, that's the run-down. It will certainly garner some press for the GOP and draw some attention to the caucus.

While rumors of brokered conventions always fascinate political junkies, they basically never happen anymore, since the days of states sending delegates committed to a "favorite son" who then can be a power-broker at the convention are over. With primaries and caucuses binding delegates, there are too few "at large" delegates to make a difference in the typical two-man horse race that most campaigns typically boil down to.

This year's situation is unusual, with no clear candidate yet emerging. Montana Headlines still maintains, as we have since long before the Iowa caucuses, that John McCain is the logical candidate that brings a combination of an 80-85% lifetime ACU rating, fire in the belly, cross-over appeal with independents and Democrats (i.e. electability,) etc. In other words, if anyone is going to emerge to begin sweeping the field, it will be McCain.

But if nothing decisive happens in Florida, we could see Super Tuesday splitting delegates among the 4 remaining major candidates, making it nearly impossible for one candidate to build momentum and reach critical mass with delegates.

If that situation were to emerge, then the great irony of the February Montana caucus would be that this would have been the one year when the impossible happens -- a nomination fight where a primary in June actually did matters.

Montana would have drawn candidates to the usually meaningless June primaries in Montana and South Dakota. We will know at the time -- if GOP presidential candidates are holding town-meetings in places like Watertown, SD in June, and buying up television ad time in Sioux Falls and Rapid City... well then we'll know that we rolled the dice and it came up snake-eyes. That's politics.

Not that there isn't possible redemption in that scenario -- but that is worth another post.

But more than likely, some Republican will be deep into his general election campaign in June, and South Dakota voters will have to find excitement in deciding which Republican is going to challenge Tim Johnson for the U.S. Senate.