An astute reader correctly cried foul on yesterday's caucus post, feeling that it was unfair for MH to leave the impression that there was a connection between Mitt Romney's visit to the Montana GOP State Convention last summer and the decision to go with the current caucus plan.
Indeed, in an earlier manifestation of that post, the official MH opinion was registered that we believed the caucus decision to have been made independent of concern for any particular campaign. Somehow, that caveat didn't make it in the final revision of the post, and apologies are in order.
We still believe that there are some potential perception problems, and stand by the observations made in the last post. While we are inclined to trust the movers and shakers in the Montana GOP not to carry water for any particular Presidential campaign, not every Republican we have talked to is as trusting as we are. But we feel that the Montana GOP is more than capable of managing those perceptions.
We have been supportive of the current caucus concept from the first time we heard of it, and we are still supportive of it -- even knowing that the results won't particularly match our own preferences. If it's good for the Montana GOP (and we think it will be,) that's what matters.
Sunday, December 30, 2007
Just in case anyone needs proof...
Proof, that is, that just about everyone on the planet with an iconoclastic bone (which we expect includes most of our readers) loves "Sweet Home Alabama." We humbly offer this:
The "Leningrad Cowboys" are, for the record, a Finnish band... The "Red Army Choir" is apparently just what the name indicates.
A McCain ad that Lt. Gov. Bohlinger could circulate
Mitt Romney, who has been breaking Ronald Reagan's 11th Commandment with vicious abandon in his attacks on Mike Huckabee, hit a new low recently. In typically clumsy and reactive fashion, he has started attacking Sen. John McCain, who is now threatening him in New Hampshire.
McCain's campaign pulled a brilliant move by "leaking" an anti-Romney ad that was put together last summer by McCain staffers who are now working for Romney (much of McCain's staff disappeared after his warchest was spectacularly and rapidly emptied last summer by that same staff -- some went on to the campaign with bottomless pockets -- Romney's.)
Characteristically, McCain nixed the ad at the time, even though those consultants wanted him to run it.
By leaking the ad to Slate, this is bound to circulate widely. And to those who think that Romney can mount a competitive general election campaign, this spot should give some pause. McCain is another GOP candidate who, like Mike Huckabee, has genuine cross-over appeal, and he shares with Huckabee a penchant for not particularly caring if the GOP pundit class approves of all of his policy positions -- not necessarily a problem in a general election.
McCain-Huckabee would be a formidable general election combination, perhaps the most formidable the GOP could mount. While Republicans can run ads against them based on their supposed lack of conservative purity, Democrats won't be able to run double-edged (double-edged because they would turn off both conservatives and liberals) "Flipper ads" against him the way they could with material like this:
McCain's campaign pulled a brilliant move by "leaking" an anti-Romney ad that was put together last summer by McCain staffers who are now working for Romney (much of McCain's staff disappeared after his warchest was spectacularly and rapidly emptied last summer by that same staff -- some went on to the campaign with bottomless pockets -- Romney's.)
Characteristically, McCain nixed the ad at the time, even though those consultants wanted him to run it.
By leaking the ad to Slate, this is bound to circulate widely. And to those who think that Romney can mount a competitive general election campaign, this spot should give some pause. McCain is another GOP candidate who, like Mike Huckabee, has genuine cross-over appeal, and he shares with Huckabee a penchant for not particularly caring if the GOP pundit class approves of all of his policy positions -- not necessarily a problem in a general election.
McCain-Huckabee would be a formidable general election combination, perhaps the most formidable the GOP could mount. While Republicans can run ads against them based on their supposed lack of conservative purity, Democrats won't be able to run double-edged (double-edged because they would turn off both conservatives and liberals) "Flipper ads" against him the way they could with material like this:
Lt. Gov. Bohlinger off to a good start by endorsing Sen. John McCain
Montana Headlines has been offering helpful suggestions to Lt. Gov. John Bohlinger on how he can burnish his Republican credentials.
We recently suggested that the most important thing he could do would be to start to endorse and campaign for Republican candidates, especially in tough election year like 2008 is shaping up to be.
We're not saying that Lt. Gov. Bohlinger reads Montana Headlines, but he seems to have taken the advice -- or at least taken a first step in that direction, by endorsing Sen. John McCain for President.
It is encouraging to see Bohlinger endorse a pro-life Republican candidate for President like John McCain, especially since it is the strong pro-life position of modern Republicans that according to local reports seemed most to sour the Lt. Gov. on the Republican party he claims to belong to (even though he made a point of saying, at the time of the last election, that he was a "pro-life Catholic" who disagreed with the Democratic Party platform on only two points, one of which was abortion.)
David Crisp wonders if this will "take the heat off" Bohlinger. Probably not, for reasons that will be made clearer in this post.
We first would remind readers that we pointed out that to make it meaningful, a Bohlinger endorsement has to come in a competitive race, and no-one believes that John McCain will be competitive in the Montana GOP caucus. Having Lt. Gov. Bohlinger sign up at the 11th hour won't be of much help to McCain, who right now has little chance of winning the caucus. As we pointed out yesterday, Romney will win the caucus in a walk -- Ron Paul and/or Mike Huckabee could turn in surprisingly strong performances, but a win by either would be nothing short of astounding.
Lt. Gov. Bohlinger is even later to the party, and is facing the fact that the state GOP has recommended that precinct position elections be held on Jan 8th across the state in preparation for the Feb. 5th caucus. Bohlinger, in other words, has less than 2 weeks to recruit Republicans to sign up -- and to be helpful, he has to actually find Republicans who like him (and who like John McCain,) and who are willing to sign up to work for the GOP and the GOP slate of candidates throughout the coming election cycle. This should prove a challenge.
After those two weeks are up, it will be a matter of his selling McCain to pre-existing precinct people and to elected Republican officials across the state, most of whom Bohlinger campaigned against, either directly or indirectly. Problematic, to say the least. One could make the case that Bohlinger's endorsement will actually hurt McCain's vote totals in Montana's caucuses.
Bohlinger, interestingly, won't get a chance to vote for McCain in the caucus, since he is unlikely to be elected to a precinct position himself (and he would be unlikely to try, since someone in that position is essentially making a promise to work to elect Republicans up and down the ticket -- something Bohlinger would be unwilling to do, for obvious reasons.)
And only Republican office holders who were elected as Republicans get to vote in the caucus. Bohlinger appeared on the state ballot as a Democrat, as Gov. Schweitzer's running mate, so he doesn't qualify.
Also problematic at this stage is that Bohlinger's endorsement is taking place in the context of a primary election -- when Republicans are running against other Republicans. We will need to see Bohlinger endorse and campaign for Republicans who are running against Democrats in competitive elections in order for us to be fully convinced that Bohlinger still wants to get back to being a Republican in good standing.
Something that could make all of this very interesting is that while casual observers of internecine GOP politics have written off John McCain's chances of winning the nomination, those chances have risen sharply of late, as MH predicted they would, nearly a month ago.
Indeed, McCain's fortunes have risen so sharply that not only is he threatening to knock off Gov. Romney in New Hampshire -- a state that with its "suburban Boston" status was once thought to be an easy lock for Romney -- he has even returned to the frozen fields of Iowa, sensing a surge in momentum that could allow him to slip into 3rd place ahead of a lagging Fred Thompson and an absent Rudy Giuliani.
In other words, Lt. Gov. Bohlinger could indeed find himself stuck with backing the eventual GOP nominee for President -- which would make things a little more interesting, even though there is still the problem of Presidential races in Montana not being competitive, brave talk from the left notwithstanding.
So, congratulations and thanks to Lt. Gov. Bohlinger -- it's a start. We're still waiting for his endorsements in competitive key legislative races and in races for statewide office, especially any that promise to be competitive.
We recently suggested that the most important thing he could do would be to start to endorse and campaign for Republican candidates, especially in tough election year like 2008 is shaping up to be.
We're not saying that Lt. Gov. Bohlinger reads Montana Headlines, but he seems to have taken the advice -- or at least taken a first step in that direction, by endorsing Sen. John McCain for President.
It is encouraging to see Bohlinger endorse a pro-life Republican candidate for President like John McCain, especially since it is the strong pro-life position of modern Republicans that according to local reports seemed most to sour the Lt. Gov. on the Republican party he claims to belong to (even though he made a point of saying, at the time of the last election, that he was a "pro-life Catholic" who disagreed with the Democratic Party platform on only two points, one of which was abortion.)
David Crisp wonders if this will "take the heat off" Bohlinger. Probably not, for reasons that will be made clearer in this post.
We first would remind readers that we pointed out that to make it meaningful, a Bohlinger endorsement has to come in a competitive race, and no-one believes that John McCain will be competitive in the Montana GOP caucus. Having Lt. Gov. Bohlinger sign up at the 11th hour won't be of much help to McCain, who right now has little chance of winning the caucus. As we pointed out yesterday, Romney will win the caucus in a walk -- Ron Paul and/or Mike Huckabee could turn in surprisingly strong performances, but a win by either would be nothing short of astounding.
Lt. Gov. Bohlinger is even later to the party, and is facing the fact that the state GOP has recommended that precinct position elections be held on Jan 8th across the state in preparation for the Feb. 5th caucus. Bohlinger, in other words, has less than 2 weeks to recruit Republicans to sign up -- and to be helpful, he has to actually find Republicans who like him (and who like John McCain,) and who are willing to sign up to work for the GOP and the GOP slate of candidates throughout the coming election cycle. This should prove a challenge.
After those two weeks are up, it will be a matter of his selling McCain to pre-existing precinct people and to elected Republican officials across the state, most of whom Bohlinger campaigned against, either directly or indirectly. Problematic, to say the least. One could make the case that Bohlinger's endorsement will actually hurt McCain's vote totals in Montana's caucuses.
Bohlinger, interestingly, won't get a chance to vote for McCain in the caucus, since he is unlikely to be elected to a precinct position himself (and he would be unlikely to try, since someone in that position is essentially making a promise to work to elect Republicans up and down the ticket -- something Bohlinger would be unwilling to do, for obvious reasons.)
And only Republican office holders who were elected as Republicans get to vote in the caucus. Bohlinger appeared on the state ballot as a Democrat, as Gov. Schweitzer's running mate, so he doesn't qualify.
Also problematic at this stage is that Bohlinger's endorsement is taking place in the context of a primary election -- when Republicans are running against other Republicans. We will need to see Bohlinger endorse and campaign for Republicans who are running against Democrats in competitive elections in order for us to be fully convinced that Bohlinger still wants to get back to being a Republican in good standing.
Something that could make all of this very interesting is that while casual observers of internecine GOP politics have written off John McCain's chances of winning the nomination, those chances have risen sharply of late, as MH predicted they would, nearly a month ago.
Indeed, McCain's fortunes have risen so sharply that not only is he threatening to knock off Gov. Romney in New Hampshire -- a state that with its "suburban Boston" status was once thought to be an easy lock for Romney -- he has even returned to the frozen fields of Iowa, sensing a surge in momentum that could allow him to slip into 3rd place ahead of a lagging Fred Thompson and an absent Rudy Giuliani.
In other words, Lt. Gov. Bohlinger could indeed find himself stuck with backing the eventual GOP nominee for President -- which would make things a little more interesting, even though there is still the problem of Presidential races in Montana not being competitive, brave talk from the left notwithstanding.
So, congratulations and thanks to Lt. Gov. Bohlinger -- it's a start. We're still waiting for his endorsements in competitive key legislative races and in races for statewide office, especially any that promise to be competitive.
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